Some damn thing in the Balkans

• Background
  • The context of the Balkans is the Crimean War
  • Romania and Serbia are reformed
  • The Congress of Berlin in 1878 concludes the Russo-Turkish War
  • Montenegro is formed and the Straits are closed to Russian navy
  • After 1878 Russia focuses expansionism and desire for a warm water piss in Asia.
  • The Russo-Japanese war turns Russia back towards the Balkans for their big 4
    • Warm water ports
    • expansionism
    • third Rome
    • Pan-Slavism
• Serbia
  • Russia is reticent to press directly for this and therefore they act through a client state: Serbia
  • Serbia is orthodox and slavic, so Russia calls them their "little brothers"
  • The Serbs consider themselves the ethnic leaders of a group of linguistically related south Slavs. The Slavic term for South-Slavs is Yugoslavs.
  • Yugoslavism is the idea that the southern slaves should be under Serbian Rule.
  • The Slovenes and Croats who are Catholic, Serbs who are Orthodox, and Bosnia-Hercegovina is about 40-40-20% ratio of orthodox-muslim-catholic.
  • Bosnia has been a protectorate of Austria since the Congress of Berlin.
  • The Serbian desire for Bosnia, which has a Serbian minority, is evident.
  • The Russians underwrite (means pays $$) a secret terrorist Serbian Organization called Narodna Obrana, or the Black Hand.
• The First Balkan Crisis (the Bosnian Crisis of 1908)
  • In 1907, the dynamic changes for Russia. The Triple Entente means that expansion in the Balkans is looked upon more favorably.
  • In 1908 Russia sees the ouster of Abdul Hamid II by the Young Turks led by Enver Pasha
  • Pasha wants the Empire to hold wide elections to form a constitutional assembly that includes Bosnia.
  • Fear from both A-H and Russia that a resurgent Ottoman State will reaffirm its position in the Balkans.
  • A-H and Russia discover common ground against the Turks. In 1908 their foreign ministers meet clandestinely at the Buchlau Conference. Though what really happened is unclear, we are kinda sure about some things
    • Austria will annex Bosnia
    • Austria will convene a World Congress and propose Russians naval access to the straits
    • This is a clear sellout of Serbia
  • The Congress fails to convene, but Austria annexes Bosnia anyway, which causes the 1st Bosnian Crisis
  • The Russians are Panslavic, so they wanted all slavs united under Russian Rule
  • The Serbs and the Russians are both desirous of a Serbian Seaport. Bosnia's annexation blocks this aspiration.
  • The Austrians have a Slavic plurality problem in their empire. In the Northern Empire there are some strongly nationalistic Slavs. In the north there are also Czech, Slovaks, and Poles. In the South there are Croats, Slovenes, and Bosnians. The Transylvanians in Romania and the Albanians and Macedonians are more towards North Greece.
  • Policy of A-H is that of Emperor Franz Joseph I: Autoslavism, or the conversion of Slavs into linguistic and cultural Germans through education etc.
  • Nationalist Slavs resist this and in the south are attracted to Yugoslavism.
  • In Reality, the majority of A-H Slavs would remain in Austria but with a greater personal and cultural freedom. The named succersor to Frans Joseph prefers a Magyar-Solution-like plan. His wife is Polish, therefore he is only hated by the Serbs, and is eventually assassinated.
• Results of the Crisis
  • Serbia and Russia are perturbed by the Bosnian Crisis. Russia has forsaken their "little Serb brothers"
  • Russia will be a primary organizer of an alliance called the Balkan Leauge
  • The Serbs, Bulgaria, Greece, and Montenegro are all a part of the Balkan League, which was intended to be directed against Austria. In 1912 the Balkan league attacks the Ottomans. Previous to this war (the first Balkan War) the Italy attacked the Ottomans in 1911.
  • The Italo-Turkish War is when Italy defeats an internally weak Ottoman Empire in Libya and the Dodecanese Islands
  • The Balkan League quickly defeats the Ottomans conquers all of European Turkey except around Istanbul.
  • Serbia will tkae Western Portions of the Ottoman Empire and have access to the Adriatic yay!!!
  • However, the West Intervenes and takes the Adriatic coast from Serbia and founds Albania.
• The Second Balkan Crisis (the Albanian Crisis)
  • The founding of Albania by the West causes the 2nd Balkan Crisis.
  • Russia demurs in the crisis and Serbia is really angry with Russia. After Albania Russia pledges to never turn their back on Serbia no matter what. They shall not deny Serbia the 3rd time (reference to St. Peter)
• The Second Balkan War
  • The Greeks, Serbs, Montenegrins, (joined by the Romanian Turks) turn on Bulgarians because they think the Bulgarians got too much territory in the 1st Balkan War.
  • In the 2nd Balkan War they defeat the Bulgarians and the loss of Bulgarian Territory. The Bulgarians get mad, and this is why they join the Central Powers in 1914.
  • The moral of the story is: The Balkans are a hot mess (soooo hot).
• The 3rd Balkan Crisis
  • On June 28th, 1914 there is a Bosnian Pride Day parade in Sarajevo. The Grand Marshal of the parade is Franz Ferdinand. The Serbian Black Hand sends a team of 6 assassins to kill him and his morganatic wife during the parade to solve the Magyar Solution.
  • The Serbian minority in Bosnia is being radicalized by Serbia who practicing Yugoslavism.
  • First Cabrinovic chucks a bomb into FF's open car, which FF blocks and deflects onto the street killing innocent bystanders.
  • FF and Sophie speed away, fulfill the rest of their daily schedule, but make an unplanned stop at the hospital to visit the injured. The Black Hand has send the rest of the assassins home, lets try again another time.
  • One of the assassins, Princip stops at a cafe for a sandwich, and sees FF when he leaves the hospital to get directions. Princip runs up to them and kills them spontaneously.
  • Cabrinovic and Princip are arrested, both take old cyanide capsules that don't work, and confess the crime within 45 minutes.
  • The Serbs and Serbian government were deeply complicit in the assassination.
  • Austria sees the assassination as an opportunity to righteously crush the Serbian attempt to grab Bosnia, and Austrians can mitigate their Slavic Nationalist issues. Austria will not act without German support.
  • Serbia appeals to Russia for assistance, who have pledged not to deny them a third time.
  • Russia will not act without French support. Both Germany and France fear the loss of their most valuable ally if they do not support them in this process. Austria arrests 5,500 Serbs, interrogates and builds a strong case against Serbia.
  • Most of Europe sees this as another isolated potential for a Balkan War
• Reactions
  • Most of Europe sees this as another isolated potential for a Balkan War. The Germans fear that Russian is undergoing a massive military expansion program that won't be complete until 1912.
  • Russia wants to delay the war while the Germans would rather fight now than later.
  • There is a notion of inevitability of war.
  • The Austrians meet with Kaiser Wilhelm II in 1914 and inform the Kaiser that they wish to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, but want german backing
  • The Kaiser full of bluster (loud indignant and aggressive words that mean nothing), issues Austria a blank check. The next day the Austrians send Serbia a 10point ultimatum and gives them 48 hours to comply.
    • The main point were:
      • stop smuggling arms into Bosnia
      • stop the newspapers from printing anti-Austrian stories
      • remove anti-Austrian textbooks from the school.
      • allow Austria to participate (in Serbia) in the prosecution of Serbian perpetrators
  • Serbia complies with all but 1 point of the Austrian demands.
• Mobilizations
  • The kaiser is losing it: he urges Austria to accept the Serbian counter offer, but the Austrians are intent on war.
  • On July 28th, Austria declares war on Serbia. Russia, in support of Serbia, orders a partial mobilization of their reserves, only around the Austrian border. Russia inquires if France will support them in case of war, so France issues them a cheque blanque.
  • The Kaiser, frantic, calls cousin Nicky (Csar Nicholas II) and begs him to stop mobilization; however, the Czar says its too late to stop.
  • Austria attacks the Serbs, the Russians fully mobilize and the French begin to mobilize.
  • On August 1st, Germany mobilizes and declares war on France and Russia, which is important because now they are considered the belligerents.
  • The British are resolutely neutral. Conservative Prime Minister Herbert Asquith's cabinet opposes the war (including David Lloyd George and Winston Churchill)
• Schllieffen Plan
  • The Germans activate the Schlieffen Plan on August 1, 1914 and declare war on France and Russia
  • 1st attack France and then attack Russia, since France can mobilize faster. This will also prevent a two fronted war
  • The plan:
    • 5 German armies will attack France via