Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Let's talk a little bit about "hweet"

  • Wheat is a staple commodity and dietary basic.
  • It has an inelastic demand, and price variations are incumbent on supply.
  • During WW1 the Inner Zone becomes Isolated from the Outer Zone. There is a interrupted by Word War 1
  • There is a deficit in wheat (and agricultural products) production was made up for in the West from the US, Argentina, and Canada.
  • By 1919, wheat prices are at an all time high. American farmers are making very high profits. They want to increase their profit so they:
    • 1. Buy more land, so land prices increase, and lands tend to be marginal. The yield of marginal yield is of low profitability.
    • 2. Mechanize farming with tractors and other equipment
    • 3. These two strategies were facilitated by Bank loans as collateral
  • By 1922 the European wheat production had assumed 1913 levels with commensurate decrease in wheat price.
  • US Farmers struggle to pay their loans, so they plant more wheat (they didn't have quotas)
  • The increase in supply drops prices further (in 1928 it hits a peak) and the loans go bad
  • Banks become unstable with the number of bad loans collateral lands of lowering value
  • The US Banks begin to invest more heavily in Stock Market. The Bank demand makes stock prices artificially high due to demand
  • People purchase stocks in the 1920s from banks on the margin. They pay 15% down on value of stock and borrow the rest from the bank and the stocks themselves serve as collateral.
  • On October 29, 1929 there is a panic, so they sell off stock, the bank fails, and we have to recall loans and bonds from the Europeans.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Our crazy sub

Just in case you didn't catch what our crazy sub was all about
  • believed the solution to the race problem is interbreeding until we are all the same race
  • She is voting for donald trump because she can't believe that other people support him. She then plans to leave the country when he gets elected.
  • Everyone has a telos based on their fingerprint
  • Everything we learn in school past ninth grade is useless
  • everything we learn after ninth grade isn't new, and we aren't really learning since it's just things we know rearranged in a different order
    • went further to discriminate between learning language arts and math (which you apparently don't need) and history and philosophy (which you do)
    • said that since she got what she wants and is on her "third Mercedes" that no one else needs to learn math
  • we need to go make money out of ninth grade, the pursuit of knowledge and exploring intellectual curiosity is less important than "making Benjamin's"
  • Dated Mohammed Ali??

The Weimar Republic

  • Background
    • (1919-1933)
    • After the abdication of Kaiser Wilhelm II, there is an interim in place (from November 1918- August 1919).
    • The interim government is composed of a coalition of left center parties: Social Democrats, and Catholic Centre Parties.
  • Their task is to deal with:
    • the Armistice
    • Treaty of Versailles
    • the British Blockade and subsequent starving
    • Post-war economic travails:
      • Unemployment, government debt, and the difficult economic transition from war to peace time
      • There are large numbers of soldiers who are unemployed and in uniform with arms called Freikorps.
    • Political Extremism from the left
      • Spartikist Putsch in December 1918, and the Bavarian Communists takeover in the Spring of 1919.
      • Communists despise the social democrats as their class enemy. They hate Bourgeois people, Right wing nationalists, Junker Militarists, and the Monarchists.
      • They hate the Social Democrats because they are proponents Capitalism.
      • 40% of Germany opposes Democracy and Republic.
      • In addition, the Republic has to bear the moral burden of signing the Versailles Treaty.
      • The provisional government has an inauspicious begininng.
      • The proliferation of political parties dooms the new Germany to rule by coalition. No Single party will capture an Electoral during the Weimar's entire existence\
  • The Constitutional Convention
    • took place in August 1919 in the German town of Weimar by the Interim government.
    • The constitution is a very liberal document.
    • Individual rights stayed the same
      • Rights of assembly, freedom of speech, conscience, habeas corpus, religion, etc were considered inviolate, perhaps to the government's detriment. The government's reticence might have fostered political extremism.
      • The #1 case of Homicide was political murders
    • The Structure of the Government
      • a Republic which means its anti-monarchical anti-German royals and anti-clerical
      • President
        • a President who is usually honorific serves a seven year term, and kind of represents stability
        • the President has the power in article 48 to rule by decree (like a dictator) in times of national crisis that are also declared by the President.
        • There have only been two German Presidents: Ebert (1919-1926) and Hindenburg (1926-1934)
      • The Legislature
        • Unicameral legislature called the Reichstag populated by deputies who are appointed by their party leadership.
        • The percentage of deputies is proportional to the % of the popular vote.
        • The Reichstag controls the purse and legislation and appoint the chancellor of the majority party.
        • The chancellor could control foreign policy, war, economy, labour, and currency.
        • but the Weimar also grants strong powers to the individual states.
        • Police, health, and transportation are controlled by powerful state presidents and landtags.
        • Large States like Prussia and Bavaria are virtually independent of Berlin. States rights supersede federal rights.
  • German Political Parties
    • In Weimar Germany, the Army, full of rightist officers, mistrusts the government.
      • The army is limited by Versailles to 100k men. To skirt disarmament, the Weimar government allowed the political parties to have "Gymnastic" Associations, which were basically private political armies composed of WWI veterans with Freikorps.
      • The most famous Gymnastic Association is the Nazi Brown Shirts (also called the SAs).
      • They held parades, had street fighting, and broke up other party speeches.
    • The Weimar's Primary Problem is Economics
      • In addition to the usual postwar ailments, the Weimar is forced to pay heavy reparations set by the Conference of Ambassadors in 1921: $132 billion Gold marks (about $55 billion).
      • Part of reparations was the German surrender of the gold reserves
  • The Ruhr Crisis (1923)
    • Reparations Question is decided by the Conference of Ambassadors' reparations commissions, who set the German War Debt at $132 Billion Gold Marks (or $865 Billion 2015).
    • The Payment is in gold or raw material equivalent: coal, timber, finished goods.
    • German gold reserves were confiscated by Allies per Treaty of Versailles as a reparations pre-payment. German currency, Deutschmark, was based on Gold Standard for currency (stability).
    • Result was a massive inflation for German Mark, for example, 4 marks to the dollar in 1913, 400 marks to the dollar in 1920.
    • By 1921, German government is mired in Depression and unemployment find themselves unable to meet a series of reparations payments, either in cash or in kind.
    • France is most affected by this since they overspent in war repairs, and are also shackled by war debt to the US.
    • France, under Raymond Poincaré, who is Clemenceau's old rival, thinks Germans are purposefully ducking reparations as a challenge to the Versailles Treaty, which they feel they were coerced to sign.
    • France is also isolated by the failure of US to ratify the Treaty and join the League of Nations. The lack of the Anglo-American guarantee forces France into more self-reliance in regards to enforcement of Versailles.
    • A failure to meet the timber and coal deliveries in late 1922 in regards to enforcement of Versailles, increases French threats to enforce the Treaty by force.
    • The Germans claim the loss of coal mines in Upper Silesia have impinged their ability to make payments.
    • In January 1923, France-Belgian troop move into the coal/industrial region of the Ruhr Valley with justification of enforcing the Versailles settlement, therefore the League has no objections to this invasion.
    • The Weimar Government employs passive resistance to meet the French occupation. Weimar encourages the leftist workers into patriotic general strike with added caveat of being paid while striking.
    • The bankrupt Weimar government prints money, unbacked by Gold to pay workers. This causes the Hyperinflation of 1923 which in November approaches 421 million %.
    • Hyperinflation crushes the German middle class by wiping out their savings and also debt. This hyperinflation creates worldwide sympathy for Germans and almost equal of consternation of the French. Lack of confidence in France causes the franc to collapse in late 1923.
    • Worldwide economic crisis hastens the entry of the US and Great Britain into the Ruhr Crisis. 130 Germans are killed by occupying forces for 13 months.
    • The French simultaneously encourage the separation/independence of the Rhineland declare independence October 1924.
    • In November 1923, the enraged German Right will accuse the Weimar Coalition of bowing to the French.
    • These events culminates in November Beerhall (Munich) Putsch in 1923. It was led by a fringe political group called the National Socialists (Nazi).Under a 34 year old Austrian, WW1 Corporal, Adolf Hitler along with a right coalition called the Fatherland Front led by Erich Ludendorff.
    • Putsch fails, Hitler funs away and falls down hurts his shoulder, and he is arrested and put on trial.
    • Hitler's trial makes him a household name in Germany. He accepts full responsibility for failing Putsch.
    • Hitler is convicted and serves 9 months in Landsberg Prison where he dictates Mein Kampf, the blueprints for Hitler's plan.
    • The Weimar Government, due to the crisis, finds a leader for Germany during difficult 1920s: conciliatory, tough Gustav Stresemann.
    • Stresemann calls off the strike and brokers a deal with the British and Americans to intervene on the reparations question which ends the French occupation of the Ruhr.
    • Americans send one of JP Morgan's best friends to Europe with a team of economic experts to redo the reparations question.
    • Charles Dawes Plan

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Post War Economics

  • 1918-1929
  • Post-war Economics are applied to the victors and the vanquished with the exception of two inner zone countries: The US and Japan.
  • The rest of the countries suffer the following:
    • The veterans now suffer from PTSD (back then it was called shell shocked). Violence has become the norm, and it is tough to transition back into domesticity because of unemployment.
    • Changeover from a war to peacetime economy takes time and is expensive
    • Debt problems and reparations means that excess cash from the government for investment is unavailable. Everyone starts using the gold standard again.
    • Inner Zone states tend towards left-center politics: there are labor unions, a sacrifice of individual rights, and an increase in the women's suffrage movement.
    • There is an emphasis on the rewarding the sacrifice of people during the war, which leads to expectations of an increase in the welfare states. An expanded welfare state is expensive which causes high taxes. The 8 hour days for 5 days a week become typical; public education increases; public health and unemployment benefits and old age pensions develop.
    • Lack of capital for investment was crucial, and borrowing money from the US was shunned.
    • There is a loss of markets. The US and Japan capture overseas markets. Many do not revert back to European possession. In addition, outer zone domestic production increased to fill the market void. This is also true in advanced imperial regions like India.
  • The Successor States
    • Background and Issues Within the States
      • The Successor are the n00bz from the treaties in Central E. Europe. They emerge east of the Rhine River.
      • Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Austria, Hungary, Baltics, and kind of Bulgaria and Rumania are the successor states.
      • Wilsonian Idealism imposes Democracy on these states. They all had written constitutions with expand/ed/ing suffrage. Almost all were UMS by 1918.
      • They elected their leaders except for 2 constitutional monarchy (Hungary's empty monarchy and Yugoslavia)
      • Their populations were mainly rural peasantry who were serfs until 1848-61, who were pitted against a landed aristocracy. The Peasants have little land and generally work as agricultural laborers.
      • Lacked industrial development and had been outer zone agricultural producers for a domestic zone.
      • They want land but the aristocracy controls the politics and land ownership. The nearby Soviet Union land redistribution polarizes the peasantry to the political left.
      • Agrarian Parties, who are left of center, develop in the noob countries.
      • These states are militaristic, nationalistic, and almost always have border disputes. Since they are controlled by the aristocracy they lean to right-wing militarism, tend to be capitalist.
      • Who will adjudicate these differences? Why the League of course!

The League

  • The league has to deal with many postwar challenges:
    • breakdown of 4 major empires: GRAHO
    • border disputes
    • widespread social and economic chaos
    • disarmament for victors
    • upholding the mandates in the Middle East and former colonies
    • reparations
  • The League Covenant or goals
    • Discourage aggresssion
    • Disarmament
    • Promote business and trade through a restoration of capitalistic world trade and political democracy
    • Promote worker rights and social welfare
  • The idea of Collective Security: was the league just an alliance against Germans and Russian aggression?
    • Article 10: Preserve the territorial integrity and political independence of its members. The council will determine how to address breaches of this nation.
    • Article 11: Any war, or the threat of war, between members or non members, is within the purview of the whole league. The League may take actions to safeguard peace
    • Article 16: If one member goes to war with another members, its an act of war against the whole league. If an outside aggressor attacks someone in the league, the same principles apply.
  • League Structure: 3 main parts, the Assembly, the Council, and the Secretariat
    • Assembly
      • The lower house with equal representation. Each country (42-60 countries) has three representatives, regardless of the size. The Assembly was the first level of passing resolutions about aggression, trade, etc.
      • Powers included
        • The powers of the purse, meaning they recommended monetary contributions for each state
        • admitting new members
        • they decided on temporary members of the Council.
      • The main weakness of the assembly was unanimity. However, members from states involved in disputes could not vote on that measure.
      • Assembly only met once a year fro 5 months (Geneva, Switzerland) they were often out of session when crises arose.
    • Council (UN Security Council)
      • consisted of four permanent members who had the power of veto for any measure.
      • Permanent members were Great Britain, France, Germany (1926), Japan, and Italy. Also 5 other temporary members, #3 Assembly.
      • Assembly measures had to be passed with unanimity by the Council. Veto gives the Permanent members too much power.
      • After Japan, Italy, and Germany leave the league, it is increasingly seen as an extension of Franco-British foreign policy.
    • Secretariat
      • Bureaucracy/civil service data collection, advice, experts, translations, etc. Also consisted of Commissions on various areas: The Saarland and Danzig, the Straits specifically. there were six other commissions.
  • What is the League's response to micro aggression or war?
    • Determine who is the aggressor
      • This is determined by a Lower Assembly of all the states where every state has three voting delegates, regardless of size. The Assembly can only pass a measure with unanimity.
      • States in dispute may not vote.
      • Then the measure goes to the Upper Council for approval, who has the veto power. They also must be unanimous.
    • Once aggression is determined
      • Moral persuasion
        • Morals are subjective
        • Relativism
      • Economic Sanctions
        • embargo, partial trade restrictions
        • the level of these sanctions were left up to the Council
        • they had problems especially during the 20s and 30s when two major depressions hurt their ability and willingness of countries to apply economic restrictions.
        • Also not all countries in the world were League members.
        • sanctions could be circumvented (US)
      • Declare War/ resort to force
        • never happens in terms of war, but troops may be sent in as a peacekeeping/buffer force.
        • Problem was that members had to contribute, pay for troops, which generally became a burden for France and Britain
  • The 6 commissions
    • 1. Permanent count of Justice the Hague (World Court) was an international dispute adjudication body. Its weakness was that is was voluntary jurisdiction. Also measures/judgements could not be enforced. It does add to the moral persuasion argument. Its precedent was Nuremberg.
    • 2. ILO is the International Labour Organization, which worked to end Child labor worldwide and banned lead paint in the workplace
    • 3. The Commission on Mandates was mainly in the East, African Colonies, Oceania, and on former possessions of central powers.
    • 4. Refugees were repatriated. There were 400K Prisoners of War from World War 1. It also dealt with Turkish-Greek Refugee Crisis (1918-22). It resettled 2 million refugees.
    • 5. Health, whose predecessor was the World Health Organization dealt with cholera, smallpox, typhus, and the plague. The Soviets even requested aid. Work on malaria and yellow fever and mosquito eradication, and flu vaccines
    • 6. Drugs and Slavery freed 200K slaves in Sierra Leone, Burma, and East Africa. It exposed companies who profited from illegal drug trade, like Opium
  • Weakness of the League
    • Structure
      • The Assembly met for only 5 months
      • The Unanimity Rule (article 22) and the veto power for the Permanent Council Members (Italy, Great Britain, France, and Japan and Germany added in 1926)
      • The permanent powers had too much power and nothing could get done
      • There was in inability to enforce rulings
    • Lack of major members such as the USSR, Germany, and the US
    • The US fails to ratify Versailles/League Charter. There were domestic issues between Wilson and Henry Cabot Lodge and the Republicans who were against the League
    • Article 10: who determines if it applies. It takes power away from Congress
    • Treaties were unfair to Italy and Germany, which lead to wars of revenges.
    • Republicans thought the new war would be funded by the US because Europe was in debt
    • In 1920, 4:1 electoral win for Republicans referendum on League.
    • Warren G Harding wins the election over Cox. The League defeated in the Senate destabilizes much of the rationale behind the League, and Peace.
    • Soviets and Lenin suspected with the US that the League intended to promote imperialism. Lack of US/Russian presence weaken sits influence in Asia and the Pacific.
    • There is an advantage to Japan. Also the lack of Germany and Russia weakens the League in E Europe.
  • Leagues Response to Various Crises
    • There is an initial problem of precedence in the decision making processes.
      • League (New in Geneva) is challenged early on by the Conference of Ambassadors, which is a residue of the Paris Peace Conference.
      • The Conference of Ambassadors is responsible for reparations, borders, and plebiscites for self-determination.
    • Vilna Crisis of 1920
      • The Capital of Lithuania is Vilna. The Successor states constructed from Lithuania from former Russian lands. During the Russian Civil war and concurrent Russo-Polish War, the Red army under Trotsky had captured Vilna.
      • The Polish army drives the Reds back and in the process liberates Vilna. Vilna is 30% Polish and strategically important to expanded Polish state.
      • The Poles decide to keep Vilna for themselves in violation of principle self-determination. Lithuanians are pissed, so they send troops to retake Vilna from Poles while appealing to League, because both the Poles and Lithuania are a part of the League.
      • The League rules in favor of the Lithuanians. The Poles appeal to the Conference of Ambassadors, which is dominated by the French. Because France wants an ally with Poland to create a potential two front war with Germany, the French rules in favor of the Poles.
      • The League acquiesces to the Conference of Ambassador's decision. This shows the League is weak and potentially manipulated by its great power members.
      • The Poles and Lithuanians fight sporadically over Vilna until 1927.
    • Aaland Island Crisis (1921)
      • Between Sweden and Finland
      • Aaland was awarded to Finland when it was constructed from Russia as part of the Cordon Sanitaire
      • Sweden objects claiming that Aaland was 70% Swedish (self-determination)
      • Swedes and Fins threated war, but both, as members of the League, appeal to the League for a decision
      • The League awards Aaland to Finland
      • Swedes disagree, but abide by the League's decision, strengthening the prestige and power of the League
    • Upper Silesia Plebiscite of 1921
      • Lower Silesia was taken from Germany and given to Poland per the Versailles Treaty
      • Upper Silesia's fate was to be determined by a plebiscite
      • Upper Silesia was a center for industry, coal, and iron, possession of which would strengthen Poland and weaken Germany, which France wanted
      • Before the vote, rioting erupts in the region and the League sends in peacekeepers, who are French and British, that pacify and hold the election
      • Result: 800K:500K voted to stay German
      • After this, the Poles riot and Poland appeals to the League
      • France intervenes and convinces the League to split upper Silesia into German and Polish parts, and the Poles end up getting the best lands
    • British view of the League
      • They want a balance of power because they are concerned with India, Ireland, China
      • The Brits worry over French preponderance and would like to strengthen Germany
      • They also think strengthening the Germany economy will aid the world economic recovery
      • Moreover, German economic recovery implies German ability to pay reparations
      • British are anxious to let the League act as Germany's helper
    • French view of the League
      • They want security
      • France thinks the League will eventually ameliorate the treaty provisions for Germany
      • France relies more on the C of A, which they control, to enforce the harsh treaty measures and strengthen France's allies
    • Corfu Crisis
      • League's biggest challenge
      • Part of the peace settlement of Paris in 1919 included a redrawing of the boundary between Albania and Greece
      • C of A appoints an Italian military group to go survey this border
      • This Italian party is ambushed and 5 members are killed, including the leader of the group, an Italian general by the name of Tellini
      • Mussolini  then takes over and blames the Greeks, demanding compensation and that the Greeks put the perpetrators to death
      • Greece claims they are not responsible
      • Mussolini responds with the occupation of the Greek Island of Corfu
        • Mussolini is into irredentism
      • Both countries are members of the League, but Italy is on the council
      • The League tells the Italians to get out, but tells the Greeks to pay the Italians some hush money
      • Mussolini disagrees with the league's decision and appeals to the C of A, which is dominated by the French who want Italian support in reparations/Ruhr Crisis of 1923
      • C of A rules in Italy's favor and Mussolini claims victory and withdraws from Corfu
      • League circumvented by 2 of 4 permanent council members
    • Economic Crises of Austria (1922), Hungary (1923), and Estonia (1927)
      • All newly constituted and economically unviable and all threatened with economic collapse
      • League intervenes and arranges international loans (predecessor to IMF) and sends economic advisors to help navigate their financial crises
      • Successful until 1929
    • Mosul Settlement (1924)
      • Oil center of Iraq and Kurdish population center
      • Treaty of Lausanne (1922)  left possession of Mosul up to British and Turkish negotiations
      • Brits propose making Mosul the capital of Kurdistan, but the Turks deny
      • British issue an ultimatum and occupy Mosul for oil
      • League approves
        • Acting on moral grounds or extension of British imperialism?
      • Mosul becomes part of Iraq (British mandate)
    • Greek-Bulgarian Dispute of 1925
      • Boundary dispute
      • Bulgarians kill some Greek soldiers because they think they are on their territory
      • Greeks take this opportunity to invade Bulgaria and take territory that is not theirs
      • The League intervenes and tells Greece to get out and makes Bulgaria pay compensation
      • The Greeks are still unhappy and believes there are two sets of rules
        • One when small countries have disputes
        • One when a great power is involved
    • Memel Dispute (1924)
      • C of A decides to make the Lithuanian city of Memel a free city
      • Lithuanians object and occupy Memel (Klaipeda) with troops
      • League has sent in French troops to carry out the internationalization of Memel
      • Lithuania defies League, French troops refuse to fight, and the League's prestige lessens